We had a couple technical difficulties this week, as first, Ewan forgot to press record when he interviewed Eno Sarris of FanGraphs, and for some reason, part 1 of the podcast got messed up, and our voices are intertwined instead of one after another...I explain at the beginning of the episode. BUT, we still had a fantastic interview with Zach Mortimer, a scout for Baseball Prospectus, and we talked about the possibility of Casey Janssen being traded. For now on I'm going to post an outline of the show so you can skip to parts you would like to listen to.
Stream
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Outline
@ZachMort Interview:0:00-26:32
Casey Janssen Talk/Week Ahead/ Housekeeping:26:33-39:31
Monday, June 17, 2013
Thursday, June 13, 2013
It's Time for a Catching Change
J.P. Arencibia is in the midst of his worse season in the big leagues. He is striking out in over 32% of his plate appearances, and only walking in 2.6% of his PA's. The catcher with the marketable smile has become a free swinging monster who's great power(for a catcher) can't even make up for his lack of any other skills. His stats won't do for a team trying to get back into the playoff race, and I believe it's time to make a change at the catcher position. It's time the Blue Jays option J.P Arencibia down to AAA, and name Josh Thole the starting catcher. Here are my reasons:
He isn't Even Good For A Catcher
A classic argument that is used by JPA apologists is that for a catcher, JP's numbers aren't that bad. The problem with that statement is that it's false. Andrew Stoeten touched on this subject at drunkjaysfans.com yesterday, so I don't want to go so in depth about it. Among the 13 qualified catchers in baseball, JPA is 12th in WAR, 12th in wRC+, 12th in wOBA, 1st in K%, and last in BB%. The only thing JP does well in is that he is powerful;His .210 ISO is best among those 13 qualified catchers. So, what exactly does JP have to offer other than power? Nothing. He needs to go.
Josh Thole is Better
It's hard for people to admit, but Josh Thole is better than J.P. Yes, both Thole and Arencibia's defense is horrible, but there is definitely a gap in their offensive production. If you discount 2012 for Thole, who suffered from lingering concussion problems all year, it becomes obvious how much better than JP he is. From 2009-2011, Thole put up a .350 OBP, and although I don't have the exact number for what his wRC+ was in that span, it was around 96 or 97. That is below league average, although not for a catcher. JP's wRC+ in 2011-2012 was somewhere around 90 or 91, but there is no reason to believe he can produce at that level again. His ISO is still around the same as it has been every year in his career, but his K% and BB% are at career highs(or low I guess for BB%). That has caused a major decrease in his already horrid wOBA, which explains why he has a 75 wRC+ this season. JP's problems have been caused by his complete lack of plate discipline. The problem is that JP continues to do nothing about it, and actually treats it like a joke, tweeting about the walk he takes once every couple of weeks. If you are going to argue that Thole isn't an upgrade, you are wrong. In a lineup desperate for OBP, Thole needs to be playing, even if he is in the 8 or 9 spot in the lineup, because he could get on base at a mark that JP will never be able to achieve in his career.
Josh Thole Just Needs to be a Stop-Gap
When the Blue Jays traded away 2 of their top 3 catching prospects in this past year(Carlos Perez to Houston and Travis d'Arnaud to New York), fans thought that we will be stuck with JP forever. We won't be. Josh Thole only needs to start and be better than JP is for a year or so. The reason? A.J. Jimenez.
Jimenez was rated the Jays #8 prospect by our staff this past offseason, and he is now back playing full
time in New Hampshire after some elbow problems and surgery that he has had for a year. Jimenez' greatest skill is his defense, which scouts and coaches alike are saying is unbelievable. Defense from a catcher is nice, but Jimenez is no slouch on offense as well. His bat has been getting better every year, and Steamer Projections(published on FanGraphs) already has him able to post a 78 wRC+ in the majors. That isn't good, but it is better than JP. A.J also doesn't strike out a ton like JP does, and for the past few seasons, his K% has been declining, now sitting in the low teens. He doesn't take a lot of walks, but as long as he isn't striking out 30% of the time, I'm fine with that. A.J is already on the 40-man, and although he probably won't be ready to be a major league catcher in April 2014, June is realistic. He should finish this year in AA, get a month of big league action this September, and will likely get a couple of months of polishing down in Buffalo next year.
After reading my arguments, I hope you are able to see that JP needs to be sent down, or at least benched for a while, so he understand that his complete lack of plate discipline will not be tolerated. He has become lazy and just swings at everything, and needs to realize that there are options in the Jays organization that are better than he is, and one is just sitting on the bench. Hopefully that will make him understand that he needs to work on his approach.
A.J. Jimenez is a year away from being ready, but the decision is quite simple. A.J's offense and defense make him a 2 WAR player already in the big leagues, and I much rather have a 2 WAR player for $500K like AJJ will be making next year, than a 0(or possibly negative) WAR player making $1MM+ in 2014. JP has ran out of time to prove himself, and his future in Toronto shouldn't be long.
I'm sure there are plenty of you reading this who disagree with me, so please comment, and we'll discuss this even more.
You can follow me on twitter, @gideonturk. To connect with the site, Follow us on Twitter, and Like us on Facebook.
He isn't Even Good For A Catcher
A classic argument that is used by JPA apologists is that for a catcher, JP's numbers aren't that bad. The problem with that statement is that it's false. Andrew Stoeten touched on this subject at drunkjaysfans.com yesterday, so I don't want to go so in depth about it. Among the 13 qualified catchers in baseball, JPA is 12th in WAR, 12th in wRC+, 12th in wOBA, 1st in K%, and last in BB%. The only thing JP does well in is that he is powerful;His .210 ISO is best among those 13 qualified catchers. So, what exactly does JP have to offer other than power? Nothing. He needs to go.
Josh Thole is Better
It's hard for people to admit, but Josh Thole is better than J.P. Yes, both Thole and Arencibia's defense is horrible, but there is definitely a gap in their offensive production. If you discount 2012 for Thole, who suffered from lingering concussion problems all year, it becomes obvious how much better than JP he is. From 2009-2011, Thole put up a .350 OBP, and although I don't have the exact number for what his wRC+ was in that span, it was around 96 or 97. That is below league average, although not for a catcher. JP's wRC+ in 2011-2012 was somewhere around 90 or 91, but there is no reason to believe he can produce at that level again. His ISO is still around the same as it has been every year in his career, but his K% and BB% are at career highs(or low I guess for BB%). That has caused a major decrease in his already horrid wOBA, which explains why he has a 75 wRC+ this season. JP's problems have been caused by his complete lack of plate discipline. The problem is that JP continues to do nothing about it, and actually treats it like a joke, tweeting about the walk he takes once every couple of weeks. If you are going to argue that Thole isn't an upgrade, you are wrong. In a lineup desperate for OBP, Thole needs to be playing, even if he is in the 8 or 9 spot in the lineup, because he could get on base at a mark that JP will never be able to achieve in his career.
Josh Thole Just Needs to be a Stop-Gap
When the Blue Jays traded away 2 of their top 3 catching prospects in this past year(Carlos Perez to Houston and Travis d'Arnaud to New York), fans thought that we will be stuck with JP forever. We won't be. Josh Thole only needs to start and be better than JP is for a year or so. The reason? A.J. Jimenez.
Jimenez was rated the Jays #8 prospect by our staff this past offseason, and he is now back playing full
 |
| Jimenez is the last of the 4 big catching prospects left in the system. |
After reading my arguments, I hope you are able to see that JP needs to be sent down, or at least benched for a while, so he understand that his complete lack of plate discipline will not be tolerated. He has become lazy and just swings at everything, and needs to realize that there are options in the Jays organization that are better than he is, and one is just sitting on the bench. Hopefully that will make him understand that he needs to work on his approach.
A.J. Jimenez is a year away from being ready, but the decision is quite simple. A.J's offense and defense make him a 2 WAR player already in the big leagues, and I much rather have a 2 WAR player for $500K like AJJ will be making next year, than a 0(or possibly negative) WAR player making $1MM+ in 2014. JP has ran out of time to prove himself, and his future in Toronto shouldn't be long.
I'm sure there are plenty of you reading this who disagree with me, so please comment, and we'll discuss this even more.
You can follow me on twitter, @gideonturk. To connect with the site, Follow us on Twitter, and Like us on Facebook.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Wednesday Web Works: June 12th
Starting off with some great info from Batter's Box, as they got their hands on the 2013 Extended Spring Training stats, and have published an article containing info on the Jays minor leaguers who were down in Florida. The pitchers played much better than the hitters, which might be expected during the EST games, but it is probably because as a whole, the Jays had some of their top pitching prospects in EST. This list includes the likes of Adonys Cardona, Chase De Jong, Alberto Tirado, Tyler Gonzales, and Mat Smoral. Those 5 guys are all top 20 in our system, and showed it. Take these stats with a grain of salt obviously, not only because of the small sample, but also because it's EST, and there are so many variables effecting the results.
Mike Wilner wrote a bit of a Game Recap post on Sportsnet.ca last night, focusing on JPA, Brett Cecil, and Chien-MingWang. I disagree with what he has to say about JPA, and I do plan on writing about that soon. Maybe later today now that the Jays game has been....
Postponed :( The Blue Jays official twitter account lets us know 5 and a half hours before first pitch that the game has been cancelled. Feels like it is ridiculously early, but we get to skip our bullpen start(Esmil Rogers), miss Chris Sale, and our taxed bullpen get's a day off which they wouldn't have been getting for a while anyways. I guess I'm fine with this.
A couple great pieces from Fangraphs. First, this one about Adam Lind, where Eno Sarris investigates what changes he has made to his swing, approach, and everything else to allow him to have such great success. Secondly, NotGraphs wins the internet with this GIF of Gerrit Cole throwing a 99 MPH GIF of Yasiel Puig hitting a home run. As I said, they won the internet.
At BlueBirdBanter, Nick Ashbourne explains how the Blue Jays offense resembles that of Lomar Overjols. You'll have to read to find out which 3 players make up that name.
Staying at BBB, also by Nick is this fantastic piece about why the Jays should start Maicer Izturis at second. BABIP is the best reason he lists, and Izturis' is really low right now, sitting at .212. Check it out, It's really good.
Don't leave SBNation yet, as SouthSideSox wrote an article that is basically trashing Hawk Harrelson and praising the Jays at the same time, so yeah, double whammy.
Lastly, Ben Nicholson-Smith takes a quick look at the Jays-White Sox mutual off-days, and it looks like today's game will be made up in late August or late September.Hurray!
Mike Wilner wrote a bit of a Game Recap post on Sportsnet.ca last night, focusing on JPA, Brett Cecil, and Chien-MingWang. I disagree with what he has to say about JPA, and I do plan on writing about that soon. Maybe later today now that the Jays game has been....
Postponed :( The Blue Jays official twitter account lets us know 5 and a half hours before first pitch that the game has been cancelled. Feels like it is ridiculously early, but we get to skip our bullpen start(Esmil Rogers), miss Chris Sale, and our taxed bullpen get's a day off which they wouldn't have been getting for a while anyways. I guess I'm fine with this.
A couple great pieces from Fangraphs. First, this one about Adam Lind, where Eno Sarris investigates what changes he has made to his swing, approach, and everything else to allow him to have such great success. Secondly, NotGraphs wins the internet with this GIF of Gerrit Cole throwing a 99 MPH GIF of Yasiel Puig hitting a home run. As I said, they won the internet.
At BlueBirdBanter, Nick Ashbourne explains how the Blue Jays offense resembles that of Lomar Overjols. You'll have to read to find out which 3 players make up that name.
Staying at BBB, also by Nick is this fantastic piece about why the Jays should start Maicer Izturis at second. BABIP is the best reason he lists, and Izturis' is really low right now, sitting at .212. Check it out, It's really good.
Don't leave SBNation yet, as SouthSideSox wrote an article that is basically trashing Hawk Harrelson and praising the Jays at the same time, so yeah, double whammy.
Lastly, Ben Nicholson-Smith takes a quick look at the Jays-White Sox mutual off-days, and it looks like today's game will be made up in late August or late September.Hurray!
Monday, June 10, 2013
BlueJaysPlus Podcast Episode 12: Post Draft Things, Mechanics, BioGenesis
Stream
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RSS: Click Here
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Live MLB Draft Blog!
The 2013 MLB Rule 4 draft is set to get underway in about 40 minutes, and we'll be live blogging the whole thing(OK, not the whole thing, mainly the Jays parts) for you tonight! This is our first foray into live blogging, so bear with us. We'll analyze the picks leading up to the Jays and how it effects the Blue Jays pick at #10, and then, after the Jays pick, we'll talk about that for a while, I guess.
We have a great team live blogging tonight, as Ewan, Marshall, Isaac, and myself(Gideon) will be manning this post. I'll try to embed any important tweets as well with updates on the draft.
Thanks for joining us, and keep on coming back and refreshing as new content will be coming rapidly(or at least I hope). We welcome your comments on this post as a great way to interact with us!
6:32 PM-Gideon
With half an hour left, I figured I'd get this started. Right now, it seems as if the Astros will be taking either Kohl Stewart or Colin Moran with the #1 pick. This info comes from a tweet by David Rawnsley of PerfectGameUSA(affiliated with BaseballProspectus).
Whoever the Astros take, it won't effect the Jays much. What will effect the Jays is what happens with pick 8-9, owned by the Royals and the Pirates respectively. This should be fun, so buckle up and enjoy the ride!
6:37-Gideon
Some non draft news. I just saw a tweet from @ShiDavidi of Sportsnet saying the Jays will purchase Andy Laroche's contract tomorrow to replace the sent down Anthony Gose. I think that was pretty expected, so not so newsworthy.
6:44-Gideon
Just a reminder, if you haven't already checked them out, Marshall and Ewan put up some great draft pieces these past couple of days. Marshall's piece can be found by clicking here, and Ewan's by click here. I'm sure they want your feedback, so leave a comment or two.
6:53-Gideon
We're less than 10 minutes away now, and I thought I'd write who I'd like the Jays to select.
LHP Trey Ball has good mechanics and a very ceiling of a #2 starter. For more about him, read the articles I linked to above. The good mechanics are key for me, as they are something other pitchers in this draft with similar ceilings don't have, and with the Jays recent injury history, I think mechanics should be a focus when acquiring players.
7:00-Gideon
So we're already to go. Don't expect the first pick to be announced for 10-15 minutes. This is going to be a long night. So, the king of twitter, Fernando Tatis, keeps us entertained with some comedy!
7:01-Gideon
The others will be joining in soon. But, it seems as if we know who the 1st pick will be. Keith Law informs us in the following tweet!
7:10-Gideon
So with Appel likely going to the Astros, I assume it will be Gray to the Cubs and then Bryant to the Rockies. Stewart probably goes to the Twins, and from there, things could change. Should be exciting. Stick with us!
7:12-Gideon
It's Appel.
The Houston Astros select RHP Mark Appel out of Stanford. Cubs on the clock. Seems as it will be Gray. We shall see.
7:15-Gideon
Jim Bowden is hearing Cubs will go Gray. The tweet:
Kris Byrant to the Cubs according to John Manuel of BA.Oh, and now confirmed by Bud Selig.
Interesting. He's powerful. He went to the University of San Diego and plays third base. Will be interesting to see if the Rockies go with Gray or take a bat.
7:20-Ewan
7:24-Gideon
Rockies select RHP Jonathan Gray. I'm surprised. A bit. Doesn't really effect the Jays. Top 3 off the board after 3 picks. Makes sense.
7:25-Ewan
7:27-Gideon
So the Twins, as expected, will pick Stewart. The tweet:
7:34-Gideon
Indians go ginger and select Frazier. #6 will likely be Shipley, per Passan.
7:37-Marshall
First pick of the draft(Frazier) that could have a trickle down effect, as mentioned by Ewan in his article. We'll see how it effects the Jays.
7:40-Ewan
7:42-Gideon
Marlins select Moran. WOW. What a Moranic pick. Sorry, just wanted to make that pun. I lime it. Makes the picture cloudy now for the Jays. Let's what happens!
7:48-Ewan
7:50-Gideon
Red Sox take Ball. I shall go cry. Meadows now top of my list.
7:53-Marshall
Hoping Shipley falls to the Jays now, him and Stanek intrigue. Along with Meadows, of course.
7:54-Ewan
7:55-Gideon
Royals take Hunter Dozier. Very big surprise. Pirates now going to choose between Meadows and McGuire. Jays likely to get the one who they don't take.
8:01-Gideon
Pirates select Meadows, so now McGuire and Shipley are available. Let's hope for Shipley.
8:01-Ewan
11:00-Gideon
Aaaaaaaaand I'm back! The Jays have their 2nd round pick at #47, which should be in a few minutes. Let's see what happens.
11:05-Gideon
No idea who Clinton Hollon is.
Well that sounds good, I think. I'll look for scouting reports and post them on here. Stay tuned.
11:15-Gideon
So Hollon throws with a 3/4 arm slot, and his mechanics are messy and, as Rode says above, he has an effort delivery. Once again, the Jays go to a guy with a high risk of injury. But, I won't rant again, I'll focus on the good. He was going to be a mid 1st round pick this draft before getting hurt, so their is some potential here. He sits 91-94 and touches 97 according to the scouting report I found, and apparently has good control. He also throws a high 70's curve and his change up features good arm speed. The money line from this scouting report though is the following. "Potential for 4 above average offerings". Very nice. If he stays healthy, this could be a nice little snag for AA and the crew.
We have a great team live blogging tonight, as Ewan, Marshall, Isaac, and myself(Gideon) will be manning this post. I'll try to embed any important tweets as well with updates on the draft.
Thanks for joining us, and keep on coming back and refreshing as new content will be coming rapidly(or at least I hope). We welcome your comments on this post as a great way to interact with us!
6:32 PM-Gideon
With half an hour left, I figured I'd get this started. Right now, it seems as if the Astros will be taking either Kohl Stewart or Colin Moran with the #1 pick. This info comes from a tweet by David Rawnsley of PerfectGameUSA(affiliated with BaseballProspectus).
Interesting, well placed source just told me that Astros are down to Stewart or Moran.Kohl would certainly be a surprise.The general consensus was that the Astros would take either RHP Mark Appel or RHP Jonathan Gray with that pick, but now it seems as if they might use last year's strategy again, when they chose to skip Appel for Carlos Correa, and then be able to sign guys for over slot later. If they were to do that this year, they'd probably be looking at Sean Manea with their pick at #40.
— David Rawnsley (@DavidRawnsleyPG) June 6, 2013
Whoever the Astros take, it won't effect the Jays much. What will effect the Jays is what happens with pick 8-9, owned by the Royals and the Pirates respectively. This should be fun, so buckle up and enjoy the ride!
6:37-Gideon
Some non draft news. I just saw a tweet from @ShiDavidi of Sportsnet saying the Jays will purchase Andy Laroche's contract tomorrow to replace the sent down Anthony Gose. I think that was pretty expected, so not so newsworthy.
6:44-Gideon
Just a reminder, if you haven't already checked them out, Marshall and Ewan put up some great draft pieces these past couple of days. Marshall's piece can be found by clicking here, and Ewan's by click here. I'm sure they want your feedback, so leave a comment or two.
6:53-Gideon
We're less than 10 minutes away now, and I thought I'd write who I'd like the Jays to select.
LHP Trey Ball has good mechanics and a very ceiling of a #2 starter. For more about him, read the articles I linked to above. The good mechanics are key for me, as they are something other pitchers in this draft with similar ceilings don't have, and with the Jays recent injury history, I think mechanics should be a focus when acquiring players.
7:00-Gideon
So we're already to go. Don't expect the first pick to be announced for 10-15 minutes. This is going to be a long night. So, the king of twitter, Fernando Tatis, keeps us entertained with some comedy!
mlb draft tonight...but ryan braun and alex rodriguez already selected in the supplemental round yesterday
— Fernando TatÃs (@FernandoTatis17) June 6, 2013
7:01-Gideon
The others will be joining in soon. But, it seems as if we know who the 1st pick will be. Keith Law informs us in the following tweet!
Hearing it's Appel to Houston.
— keithlaw (@keithlaw) June 6, 2013
7:10-Gideon
So with Appel likely going to the Astros, I assume it will be Gray to the Cubs and then Bryant to the Rockies. Stewart probably goes to the Twins, and from there, things could change. Should be exciting. Stick with us!
7:12-Gideon
It's Appel.
The Houston Astros select RHP Mark Appel out of Stanford. Cubs on the clock. Seems as it will be Gray. We shall see.
7:15-Gideon
Jim Bowden is hearing Cubs will go Gray. The tweet:
Astros take Mark Appel...Cubs on the clock and I'm hearing they're taking Jonathan Gray with the 2nd overall pick7:17-Gideon
— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) June 6, 2013
Kris Byrant to the Cubs according to John Manuel of BA.Oh, and now confirmed by Bud Selig.
Interesting. He's powerful. He went to the University of San Diego and plays third base. Will be interesting to see if the Rockies go with Gray or take a bat.
7:20-Ewan
The Astros grab the pitcher they passed on last year, in Stanford right hander Mark Appel. This shows that money wasn't a concern, because you'd suspect that Jonathan Gray would've signed for slightly less money.
The real lesson in this pick is Scott Boras always wins. Gambled by letting Appel go back into the draft, and he's the big winner.
Harold Reynolds thinks that Appel could be in Houston by July. His first comment of the night that is totally out to lunch. Not saying that Appel doesn't have the MLB ready talent, right now, but there is zero chance a hopeless team burns through service time in order to add a win to a 65 win team.
7:21-Isaac
The Astros did the right thing by picking Mark Appel #1 overall. There was a ton of speculation about various players, many people had them taking Gray, Moran, or Stewart. But then again, there is speculation every single year. I think the Astros knew Appel was the guy from the beginning, being the most polished, most advanced, player on the board. Another step forward for the Astros rebuild. They are doing it right.
7:21-Isaac
The Astros did the right thing by picking Mark Appel #1 overall. There was a ton of speculation about various players, many people had them taking Gray, Moran, or Stewart. But then again, there is speculation every single year. I think the Astros knew Appel was the guy from the beginning, being the most polished, most advanced, player on the board. Another step forward for the Astros rebuild. They are doing it right.
7:24-Gideon
Rockies select RHP Jonathan Gray. I'm surprised. A bit. Doesn't really effect the Jays. Top 3 off the board after 3 picks. Makes sense.
7:25-Ewan
The Cubs surprise people to a certain degree, by passing on Jonathan Gray, to take what the rarest thing in the game these days is, which is right handed power. 3rd baseman Kris Bryant has as much power as any pick in recent memory.
With seemingly 3rd base long term plugged by Javier Baez, and 1st base with Anthony Rizzo, I'd expect that Bryant could be ticketed for right field.
Harold Reynolds tells us that he's seen Bryant pick it at 3rd, and he can stay there. I question how many times he's been out to San Diego to scout Bryant's D.
7:27-Gideon
So the Twins, as expected, will pick Stewart. The tweet:
As expected, the #Twins are going to take HS RHP Kohl Stewart out of Houston area. #mlbdraft7:28-Ewan
— John Manuel (@johnmanuelba) June 6, 2013
With Bryant off the board, the Rockies don't get cute and force a hitter in this slot. They take Jonathan Gray, and wind up with who I thought was the best talent in the draft.
I always thought the Rockies should've been focused on pitching to begin with, so this works just as well.
Lack of Harold Reynolds lunacy after this pick, but I'd expect its only because they cut to commercial.
Despite the 3 picks not being in order, the top 3 are the 3 players we expected.
7:30-Gideon
Jeff Passan of Yahoo say Indians are in on Frazier. We'll see if they pick him
7:30-Gideon
Jeff Passan of Yahoo say Indians are in on Frazier. We'll see if they pick him
Hearing the Indians are on Clint Frazier, the powerful outfielder from Georgia, at No. 5.7:33-Ewan
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) June 6, 2013
The first no brainer of the night. The Twins have one of the most stacked farm systems in the entire league, however it is still lacking pitching. The ability to pair a stud arm like Kohl Stewart, along side their stud position players like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Together those are the trio who could lead the twinkies back to prominence.
Mark Appel calls in, and credits God for showing him the path to go. Pretty lofty nickname he's given to Scott Boras.
7:34-Gideon
Indians go ginger and select Frazier. #6 will likely be Shipley, per Passan.
Braden Shipley, a right-hander from Nevada, likely will go No. 6 to the Marlins. Moran dropping is only thing that might change that.Oh, and Frazier sings Taylor Swift, so the Jays missed big time.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) June 6, 2013
7:37-Marshall
First pick of the draft(Frazier) that could have a trickle down effect, as mentioned by Ewan in his article. We'll see how it effects the Jays.
7:40-Ewan
First real shock of the night occurs at #5 as the Indians take Clint Frazier over Colin Moran, and not only blow up draft boards, but also crush my heart. I was still holding out hope that Frazier's unconventional body and player type would fall to the Jays at 10.
Now the question becomes where does Colin Moran fall. He doesn't strike me as a Red Sox type pick. Big wildcard introduced.
Harold Reynolds comps Frazier to Mike Trout, which seems really lazy. I also learned that Frazier has grown 2 inches in the past couple weeks, and is now 6'1.
7:42-Gideon
Marlins select Moran. WOW. What a Moranic pick. Sorry, just wanted to make that pun. I lime it. Makes the picture cloudy now for the Jays. Let's what happens!
7:48-Ewan
Since Colin Moran fell into their laps, they pass on Braden Shipley to take the polished MLB ready third baseman.
I'm hoping that this means that Shipley falls into the Royals lap, since I expect they are looking for a college pitcher. This could lead to Trey Ball falling to the Jays. Ball is at the top of my board right now.
Luhnow in his interview basically tells Reynolds he's a moron for thinking Appel will get there by July.
Also, I appreciate whoever the host is, for throwing a jab at the Royals (and ex-hitting coach Jack Maloof) by saying they are looking to "hit a home run"
7:50-Gideon
Red Sox take Ball. I shall go cry. Meadows now top of my list.
7:53-Marshall
Hoping Shipley falls to the Jays now, him and Stanek intrigue. Along with Meadows, of course.
7:54-Ewan
Red Sox snag Trey Ball, who another of the guys I really wanted. I'll be very disappointed if the Royals snag Meadows next, which there has been some buzz on them taking. That would be my nightmare scenario, which could lead to someone like a JP Crawford going to the Jays.
Let's hope the Royals are looking for pitching and take one of Bickford, Meadows, or Stanek.
7:55-Gideon
Royals take Hunter Dozier. Very big surprise. Pirates now going to choose between Meadows and McGuire. Jays likely to get the one who they don't take.
8:01-Gideon
Pirates select Meadows, so now McGuire and Shipley are available. Let's hope for Shipley.
8:01-Ewan
I just pity Royals fans. Hunter Dozier wasn't ranked in the top 30 by anyone.
Jesus Christ. Reynolds loves the pick. Compares him to Troy Tulowitzki, and says he's a lock to stay at short. Jonathan Mayo immediately says Reynolds doesn't know anything, and he's not a shortstop.
This pick is atrocious, and is Dayton Moore's final insult to Royals fans on his way out the door.
I don't care how little money Dozier takes, even of it gets them Bickford or Manaea.
Now that Harold Reynolds realizes its a crappy pick he's questioning it.
8:05-Gideon
I don't like this pick. I'll explain soon. No more live blogging picks. We'll be giving our thoughts on this pick, and then be back at it when the Jays draft in the 2nd round.
I'll be back with the live blog when the second round comes on. I'm writing a separate post on Bickford.
8:05-Gideon
I don't like this pick. I'll explain soon. No more live blogging picks. We'll be giving our thoughts on this pick, and then be back at it when the Jays draft in the 2nd round.
I'll be back with the live blog when the second round comes on. I'm writing a separate post on Bickford.
11:00-Gideon
Aaaaaaaaand I'm back! The Jays have their 2nd round pick at #47, which should be in a few minutes. Let's see what happens.
11:05-Gideon
No idea who Clinton Hollon is.
#BlueJays take RHP Clinton Hollon. Big arm, effort to delivery. Good SL. #mlbdraft
— Nathan Rode (@NathanRode) June 7, 2013
Well that sounds good, I think. I'll look for scouting reports and post them on here. Stay tuned.
11:15-Gideon
So Hollon throws with a 3/4 arm slot, and his mechanics are messy and, as Rode says above, he has an effort delivery. Once again, the Jays go to a guy with a high risk of injury. But, I won't rant again, I'll focus on the good. He was going to be a mid 1st round pick this draft before getting hurt, so their is some potential here. He sits 91-94 and touches 97 according to the scouting report I found, and apparently has good control. He also throws a high 70's curve and his change up features good arm speed. The money line from this scouting report though is the following. "Potential for 4 above average offerings". Very nice. If he stays healthy, this could be a nice little snag for AA and the crew.
Jays Select Phil Bickford: Mechanics Continue to Mean Nothing
You'd think after years of having seasons thrown away because of pitcher injuries the Jays Front Office would get a clue and stop acquiring pitchers with bad mechanics that lead to injuries. But, that clearly isn't the case as with the 10th overall pick in tonight's draft, the Blue Jays picked high school RHP Phil Bickford from California. I'm getting tired of the Jays being stupid.
Bickford has the 2nd best high school in the draft according to BA, reaching 97 MPH and sitting between 92 and 94 MPH. This might be good, but a flamethrower with bad mechanics leads to injuries 99.9% of the time.
He also lacks a good breaking pitch. His slider can be a wipeout pitch some times, but most of the time it will just hang up there and get hit. Phil also throws a change up which is nothing to write home about, so yeah, very exciting player!
Thebest worst part about Bickford though has to be his mechanics. He throws with a 3/4 arm slot as shown in this video below, and is just an injury waiting to happen. His high ceiling is very nice, but it's hard to reach a ceiling without an arm. Given the odds that his arm falls off(not literally obviously), his ceiling seems untouchable.
But wait, there's more. He's also a tough sign. So, if he doesn't sign, the Jays get the 11th pick next year, in what is considered as an even weaker draft than this one!!! Hurray!!! This was such a smart move.
The Blue Jays have one starter in the big leagues with good mechanics(Buehrle), and he is vastly overpaid, and might be leaving town soon. In the minors, their best prospects, Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna, both have horrid mechanics. Now throw in Bickford, and the Jays have really created a recipe forsuccess faille here. There is an old saying that goes "Pitchers win Championships". It means healthy pitchers, not the Josh Johnson and Phil Bickford's of the world!
Want to know why you should hate this pick? Law had him at 55 on his rankings.
How does one spin this is a good pick? Fail to mention the bad, obviously. Take it away, Brian Parker.
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Bickford has the 2nd best high school in the draft according to BA, reaching 97 MPH and sitting between 92 and 94 MPH. This might be good, but a flamethrower with bad mechanics leads to injuries 99.9% of the time.
He also lacks a good breaking pitch. His slider can be a wipeout pitch some times, but most of the time it will just hang up there and get hit. Phil also throws a change up which is nothing to write home about, so yeah, very exciting player!
The
But wait, there's more. He's also a tough sign. So, if he doesn't sign, the Jays get the 11th pick next year, in what is considered as an even weaker draft than this one!!! Hurray!!! This was such a smart move.
The Blue Jays have one starter in the big leagues with good mechanics(Buehrle), and he is vastly overpaid, and might be leaving town soon. In the minors, their best prospects, Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna, both have horrid mechanics. Now throw in Bickford, and the Jays have really created a recipe for
Want to know why you should hate this pick? Law had him at 55 on his rankings.
How does one spin this is a good pick? Fail to mention the bad, obviously. Take it away, Brian Parker.
I'll leave with this. The Jays need a philosophy change. If it requires a new GM, then that's the cost that will need to be paid. But, AA can't keep on getting these guys that are destined to be hurt, and then blame everything on bad luck. It might be time to #FireAA(not mid-season, off-season).
You can follow me on twitter, @gideonturk. To connect with the site, Follow us on Twitter, and Like us on Facebook.
Mock Draft Scenarios
By: Ewan Ross
To couple with the previous piece written by Marshall Henson wrote about the players the Blue Jays may select at #10 overall, I’m going to go through each of the picks preceding the Blue Jays selection, and attempt to lay out who I believe each of these teams will pick. The basis for these beliefs is via the multitude of mock drafts (from ESPN’s Keith Law, Baseball America’s Jim Callis, Scout.com’s Kiley McDaniel & MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo).
Hopefully, you’ll find this useful to get an accurate sense of which players will be available when the Jays walk up to the podium.
#1 Overall – Houston Astros
Primary Target – Jonathan Gray – RH Pitcher – Oklahoma
Secondary Target – Mark Appel – RH Pitcher – Stanford
Tertiary Target – Colin Moran – Third Base – North Carolina
Ostensibly the Astros decision should come down to two players, the two most talented players in the draft, Right Handers Jonathan Gray, and Mark Appel. The consensus appears to be that they are the two most talented players in the draft, and if this pick was just about talent they would be the picks. Talent evaluators seem very split on which is more talented, and so the deciding factor may come down to price. Jonathan Gray’s price may have fallen due to testing positive for Adderall in the week before the draft, while Mark Appel’s price is always going to be high due to his connection to Scott Boras as his agent advisor.
The wildcard in all this would be third baseman Colin Moran. Last year at this time, it seemed that the two players they were down to was Byron Buxton, and Mark Appel, and they went off the board and selected shortstop Carlos Correa for a well below slot deal. In doing this, they not only got a very talented prospect at #1, but also saved a boatload of money in order to players later in the draft and pay them well above slot. If that scenario were to play out this year, Moran would be the beneficiary.
Jays Impact - However, regardless of how things play out, none of this is likely to impact the Jays selection, since even if the Astros pass on Gray or Appel, there is zero chance they make it all the way down to #10.
#2 Overall – Chicago Cubs
Primary Target – Mark Appel – RH Pitcher – Stanford
Secondary Target – Jonathan Gray – RH Pitcher – Oklahoma
The Cubs are probably the easiest team to project in this year’s draft. Unlike every one of the other teams in the draft they haven’t floated any below slot rumors. The Cubs strategy is simply to take whichever of the two top end pitchers falls to them. The rumours seem to be that they prefer Mark Appel to Jonathan Gray, so if the Astros surprise everyone and go off the board, I’d expect Appel would be the pick.
Jays Impact – Much like the #1 overall pick, this one has zero impact on who the Jays select. Just like the Astros, regardless of Gray or Appel gets past the Cubs, the lowest they would fall would be to the Red Sox at #7.
#3 Overall – Colorado Rockies
Primary Target – Kris Bryant – Third Base – San Diego
Just like the Cubs, the Rockies seem fairly easy to peg. Everyone you read says that they will take power bat Kris Bryant with the #3 pick. In Keith Law’s last mock draft, he played out the Colin Moran scenario, and still had the Rockies selecting Brant with the #3 pick instead of one of the high upside pitchers. Very late in the process, there have been rumblings about the Rockies taking first baseman Dominic Smith with the #3 pick, notably from the esteemed Peter Gammons…
First I've heard of it RT @infraren what do you think of Gammons saying Dominic Smith to Rox at 3?The easy explanation here is that they have floated these rumours in order to attempt to drive Bryant’s price down. I’d think there is zero chance that they pass on Bryant, and if they do, the only possibility is that they pick one of the pitchers instead.
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) June 6, 2013
Jays Impact – There are rumours that the Jays might have a passing interest in Dominic Smith, so if the Rockies go off the board, and select him, that would take one of their options off the board. I don’t see that as happening, so next to no impact with this pick as well
#4 Overall – Minnesota Twins
Primary Target – Kohl Stewart – RH Pitcher – Texas High School
Secondary Option – Jonathan Gray – RH Pitcher – Oklahoma
Tertiary Option – Mark Appel – RH Pitcher - Stanford
Like the three picks before them, the Twins appear to be locked in on a certain player. In this case its Texas high school right hander, Kohl Stewart, and for the Twins that’s quite a surprise. In normal circumstances, the Twins generally have a history of selecting high school position players (notably outfielders), and also college pitchers. With the current state of their farm system however, pitchers have become a massive area of need, so it would be stunning for them to pass an arm this time around. However, if the draft shakes out as expected there won’t be a college arm worth taking. This will drive them to go outside their box, into selecting Kohl Stewart, who is clearly the top prep arm in the class.
However, if one of Gray or Appel is available, I’d be stunned if they were to pass on them, although Appel’s connection to Boras may scare them. Again, in the scenario Law laid out, the Twins still passed on Gray, and took Stewart.
Jays Impact – If the Twins were to take Gray or Appel, if available, it could lead to a massive trickle down. It would leave Stewart on the board, and turn the Indians into a massive wild card.
#5 Overall – Cleveland Indians
Primary Target – Colin Moran – Third Base – North Carolina
Secondary Target – Jonathan Gray – RH Pitcher – Oklahoma
Tertiary Target – Mark Appel – RH Pitcher - Stanford
Colin Moran seems to be the likely selection here. Unlike most draft prospects, he lacks the loud tools you would normally select, however, he’s a polished hitter. The only real scenario that seems likely in which they would go another direction, is if Moran is the surprise #1 pick to the Astros. If Gray or Appel falls all the way to #5, I see no possible way that a team as desperate for MLB ready pitching could possibly pass on that.
Jays Impact – The only way the Indians pick would impact on the Jays is if none of Appel, Moran, or Gray are available. In that scenario they could cause a massive trickle down if they pass on Stewart, because who then they become a complete unknown.
#6 Overall – Miami Marlins
Primary Target – Braden Shipley – RH Pitcher - Nevada
In every single mock draft I’ve seen the Marlins have taken college right hander Braden Shipley. This fit’s their M.O., because Shipley appears to be a bargain pick, but one still with considerable ability. Shipley is a relatively recent conversion to the mound, and that brings with it both positives and negatives. It can generally lead to questionable mechanics (as you’d see from the likes of Sergio Santos), but on the positive side, his arm hasn’t had nearly as many pitches on it, throughout the pre-MLB portion of his career.
Jays Impact – If the Marlins passed on Shipley (which I don’t expect), I’d expect the Royals would likely snatch him up. This could lead to someone else trickling down.
#7 Overall – Boston Red Sox
Primary Target – Clint Frazier – Outfielder – Georgia High School
Secondary Target – Austin Meadows – Outfielder - Georgia High School
Tertiary Target – Phil Bickford – RH Pitcher – California High School
The Red Sox are at this point are a very tough team to peg down. All the mock drafts, have the Red Sox taking one of the Georgian outfielders. The scouting industry seems fairly divided on which of these two players is the superior prospect. As for Bickford, who I list as the tertiary option, he has flown up the draft boards in the past couple weeks, and he’s jumped into consideration for both the Red Sox & Royals.
Jays Impact – The Red Sox are the primary reason why none of the first five picks are relevant. Any of those top selections that fall, will be hovered up by the Red Sox. Even if they needed to sacrifice a future first round pick to take someone like Mark Appel I could see them doing that, especially since their pick will likely be a late one in the upcoming season.
#8 Overall – Kansas City Royals
Primary Target – Trey Ball LH Pitcher– Indiana High School
Secondary Target – Phil Bickford – RH Pitcher – California High School
Tertiary Target – Ryne Stanek – RH Pitcher - Arkansas
Other options – Austin Meadows - Outfielder - Georgia High School
It seems apparent that the Royals would desperately like to take a pitcher here and ideally a college one, and with Gray, Appel & Shipley all gone if they go that way it would seem like Kansas City native Ryne Stanek would be the way to go. However, the Razorback pitcher has pitched thru elbow pain late in the year which has raised red flags. If anyone is going to take him this early its his home town team, but I'd expect its even a shade early for them.
So without a college player worth taking here, I'd expect the Royals to look to the Prep ranks at either Indiana lefty Trey Ball or California righty Phil Bickford.
Ball is a two way player who not only dials it up over 95 from the left side, but also would profile as a 2nd round talent as an outfielder. He has the type of long frame scouts dream on from a pitcher, and the temptation of a power southpaw may be too much to pass up.
Bickford on the other hand has been the story of the past week as he has rocketed up the draft board on the strength of his 17 strikeout final start (which say him strikeout his first 11 batters). Previously seen as more a late first rounder he's put himself firmly in the mix as high as 8. Bickford is this draft's wildcard, as he also has apparently a high signing demand making him a possibility if the Astros were to go the Moran route at #1 to be their target if he were to fall. Keep an eye on him.
If the Royals do go with a position player Austin Meadows seems the likely fit, but they could also go with New Mexico first baseman DJ Peterson. However, I fully expect them to land on one of the three pitchers listed above.
Jays Impact – Its expected that the Jays are interested in both the prep arms listed above, especially Ball. If Ball gets past the Royals, look for him to land in Toronto's lap at 10.
#9 Overall – Pittsburgh Pirates
Primary Target – Reese McGuire – Catcher – Washington High School
Every single mock draft has had the Pirates taking high school catcher Reese McGuire. In this pick, the Pirates kind of have a gun to their head. This pick is compensation for them failing to sign Mark Appel last season, and that means that if they couldn’t come to terms with this pick, they wouldn’t get a subsequent compensation pick. The thought seems to be that McGuire could be a cheap sign, but one with considerable risk. The track record of high school catchers is incredibly poor. Since Joe Mauer was selected with the #1 pick of the 2001 draft, the only first round high school catcher to reach the majors as a catcher is Hank Conger. While McGuire is seen as major league ready defensively, but his bat may never come around.
Jays Impact – This pick seems locked in, but if the Pirates were to pass on McGuire, it seems very likely that the Jays would take him. Since that isn’t likely, I’m discounting McGuire as an option.
==============================
After laying out this scenario, if I assume that the 7 picks appear to be locked in (1-6 & 9) that means that only 2 of the players on the following list will be off the board, when the Jays pick. The list is in order of the players I wish to see the Blue Jays take.
1 – Clint Frazier – Outfield – Georgia High School
2 – Trey Ball – LH Pitcher – Indiana High School
3 – Austin Meadows – Outfield – Georgia High School
4 – Phil Bickford – RH Pitcher – California High School
5 – Dominic Smith – First Base – California High School
6 – JP Crawford – Shortstop – California High School
If this scenarios play out the way I have laid it out, I am advocating that the Blue Jays take whoever is left over among the group of Ball, Frazier & Meadows. If they pass on that remaining player, I will be varying degrees of disappointed.
More Draft coverage coming later today as Donn reveals his 2nd part of his Guest Post mock draft.
More Draft coverage coming later today as Donn reveals his 2nd part of his Guest Post mock draft.
Wednesday, June 5, 2013
What To Expect From The Blue Jays Heading Into Draft Day
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The MLB Rule 4 Draft is this Thursday, and in the first round, the Blue Jays will be picking 10th overall. This is their highest pick since JPR passed up on Troy Tulowitzki to select the great Ricky Romero. I will be previewing the top prospects in this draft that the Jays have either been linked to, or look to be drafted around the are where the Jays are picking.
Here are the players, after those five, that could end up being selected by the Jays. They’re in order of who I would want the Jays to take once their pick arrives. The list is derived from videos I’ve watched, along with scouting reports I’ve read. I don’t own a pitcher or batter bias, rather, I prefer the best player available, with the most projectability and the least risk, in my opinion. I am not a professional scout, I have just watched some video and read a lot about each of these players. Keep in mind that when the Jays have gone with position players in the top few rounds under the AA regime, they seem to go with toolsy players who don't necessarily need to stick in the outfield, so Frazier and Meadows are likely being targeted at this point.
1-CLINT FRAZIER – OF – 6’1 – 190 LBS -- 18 YEARS OLD
Frazier’s unique combination of speed and power put him near the top of most draft broads, and if the Jays are lucky enough to have him fall onto their laps, they cannot pass on him, in my opinion. He’s outstandingly athletic with room for growth, and again, the power and speed are quite evident. He could have a 70 power bat in the future, and 50 hit tool. He plays the game all-out, which can have its pros and cons obviously, evident in the constant drama that surrounds Brett Lawrie.
2-BRADEN SHIPLEY – RHP – 6’3 – 190 LBS -- 21 YEARS OLD
This solid college righty has really raised his draft stock, especially when considering he wasn’t drafted out of high school, at all. Shipley throws 3 solid pitches that all project as possibly above average offerings, with a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, and has been seen up to 98mph. His change up is considered by many as his best pitch, and he throws it in the mid 80's and it's very hard to pick up out of his hand. His curveball is pretty non-existent right now, defintitley not a plus pitch yet, but it does have some movement and he throws it in the high 70's. He projects as a #2 out of college.
3-AUSTIN MEADOWS – OF – 6’3 – 200 LBS -- 18 YEARS OLD
Meadows and Frazier are practically tied on many boards a product of their similar skill sets and same home state, but Frazier’s raw power intrigues me more than Meadows even 5 tools. Meadows is, like Frazier, a projectable high school outfielder with crazy bat potential, but with less power and more speed. I would be thrilled with Meadows if he ends up with the Jays, because he’s a very projectable corner-outfielder with 5 tools.
4-RYNE STANEK – RHP – 6’4 – 190 LBS -- 22 YEARS OLD
This near-23 year old has fallen on some draft boards, and is truly a wildcard, meaning he could go anywhere in the first half of the draft. Stanek’s a projectable right hander with a mid-90s fastball that’s been seen up to 97. The slider is lethal at times, but is seen as inconsistent. Also shows a curve and change, both in progress, but could turn into solid offerings. The fear that his all-out effort delivery could force him into the bullpen could let him slip down in the draft, right onto the Jays’ lap if they wish to select him.
5-TREY BALL – LHP/OF – 6’6 – 180 LBS -- 18 YEARS OLD
 |
| Will Ball be headed to the Jays tomorrow? |
Ball has been continuously linked with the Jays according to Keith Law of ESPN and others. He seems like the most likely pick at 10. He has played two positions effectively, but I believe most prefer him, and his 6’6 frame, as a starting pitcher. As a lefty in the mid-low-90s with the fastball that can touch 96 out of high school, with a tight breaking curve (with a lack of experience with the pitch), there is much to love. Ball projects as a #2 starter (maybe even better), with the OF as a backup plan, if he was to need it. His mechanics are said to be very smooth and repeatable, something the Jays sure could use in their system.
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*Line represents where, if I was drafting the Jays’ pick would be located. Meaning one of the other four would be mildly disappointing, unless the pick is paid under slot value, giving the Jays more money to buy high on a second rounder.
6-PHIL BICKFORD – RHP – 6’4 – 185 LBS -- 17 YEARS OLD
Bickford, like Stanek is a wild card. I, unfortunately, don’t know as much as I’d like to about Bickford. From the videos and reports I’ve seen, the fastball hits 97 and the slider has large break with big swing and miss potential. He throws from an unorthodox ¾ arm slot that makes his slider that much better, but also very inconsistent. He has top of the rotation potential, but has a long way to go, especially with the interesting mechanics possessed by the young right hander.
7-REESE MCGUIRE – C – 6’1 – 190 LBS -- 18 YEARS OLD
McGuire is a defense-first catcher, with room to grow at the plate. Some say he could catch in the big leagues at this moment—if it didn’t mean he had to hit. His elite defense is highly touted, and it only takes one team to believe in a decent bat to grab him early on, including the Jays. The track record of HS prep catchers is not good, to say the least, so risk is a huge factor here.
8-DOMINIC SMITH – 1B – 6’ – 195 LBS -- 18 YEARS OLD
Smith is a gold glove caliber 1B (ok), with bat potential to follow (obviously). Smith has been linked to the Jays, but I personally don’t see how they pass on at least three of the players ahead of him on this list. I also doubt the Jays could sign a high-school student with college commitments for under slot value, despite the possible overdraft.
9-JP CRAWFORD – SS – 6’2 – 180 LBS -- 18 YEARS OLD
| JP is the cousin of Dodgers All Star Carl Crawford, so talent runs in his family. |
Personally, I DO NOT want the Jays to select Crawford. He’s nothing special, and is only rated so high because there is literally no other SS with a chance to make the big leagues in this draft. There are guys I prefer over Crawford (minimally), but Crawford has been linked to the Jays, whereas others like Hunter Renfroe have not. Crawford isn’t a stand out in the field or with the bat. This is the one guy that I would be utterly disappointed with the Jays drafting, even if he signs under slot value.
For more info on the Draft, check out the latest episode of the BJP Podcast, where Gideon and Ewan talked with Jeremy Nygaard about the players the Jays might take.
You can follow me on twitter, @Canucks_BlueJay.
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2013 MLB Mock Draft: Part 2
Guest Post by: Donn Parris
*Views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of BlueJaysPlus.com and its staff. For our draft opinions, you can read the article written by Marshall yesterday, or the one Ewan has posted today.
*Views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of BlueJaysPlus.com and its staff. For our draft opinions, you can read the article written by Marshall yesterday, or the one Ewan has posted today.
This is the second year I have been asked to participate in providing my opinions on the MLB Rule IV Draft. This was a much harder year for me as the talent pool seems to be down from last year. Enjoy reading and keep an open mind as I tried to pick the best fit for each club so that each selection would be provided with the best opportunities to become the Big Leaguer they all wish to become. Decisions were based on past draft history, advisor and the previous ability to develop players within the organizations.
16. Phillies – Ian Clarkin, LHP, Madison HS San Diego CA
Call it a sucker pick, but with everything Cole Hamels
became in the Phillies system, why not go to the well twice. Many find it easy to compare the two and they
share a lot in common. Unless a player
from the top of this list like Kohl Stewart makes himself more available,
Clarkin is the name I think is the best fit the City of Brotherly Love.
15. Diamondbacks – Jonathon Crawford, RHP, University of
Florida FL
For an organization with such balance in the Top 10
prospects, Crawford is a safe pick. A
stallion on the mound, professional baseball and player development will refine
the harness and the power and Crawford moves relatively quickly to the big
leagues.
14. Pirates - Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana University IN
Remember that earlier LHP I mentioned??? If his advisor and GM Huntington can come to
terms this may be the answer. If not,
then pirates get another first round pick next year. (Pick #15) Manaea has some health concerns
and that allows the Pirates to offer below recommended money. Again it is all about the medical and his
advisor. See him going back to college.
13. Padres – JP Crawford, SS, Lakewood HS CA
Right Fit, Right Time, Future Big Leaguer. Just think that the choice of JP would be
overall the best pick in the entire first round for this club. It just feels right. Seeing JP take groundballs at Petco in August
during the 2012 Perfect Game Rawlings
All American just looked right.
Bloodlines and mental maturity and body that will get strong are all
reasons why the Padres make Crawford their selection.
12. Mariners - Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State MS
Once again Tom McNamara rolls the dice on a player with
giant upside that other organizations shy away from, at least as Top 15 picks.
This draft is not the deepest in college outfield talent so I can see Renfroe
being the Mariners Selection. Good
Choice!
11. Mets - Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas AK
The Mets will be attempting to duplicate the magic they
found in Matt Harvey. Power arm that
needs to be refined as to command but is a work horse and that is a plus for
any rotation. There are a few college
arms that could go here but my thinking is that Stanek has the highest
rewards. If it doesn’t work out, the
Mets have no trouble trading him away to another organization willing to tweak
and fix his command issues.
10. Blue Jays – Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, Serra HS CA
Alex Anthopoulos covets Athletes and players that have a higher
ceiling than others. A gunslinger
approach to the draft and to dealing players, Smith is a fit on Toronto and the
player development system that is in place.
I will not be surprised that any player pick here will be under paid by
recommendation but still paid quite well.
Smith will still be on the board here and my feeling is this is a prime
spot for Dominic to be selected and Toronto to make the deal.
9. Pirates – Phil Bickford, RHP, Oaks Christian HS CA
Like Young Arms? Then
the Pirates should not pass up on this youngster. Bickford has helium and that lands him in
Pirate City. Over draft?? Not for me,
but it is a player that you can make a pre-draft offer and save money. They must sign the pick or lose it as it is
compensation for Appel. My offer is 2.3M
and Bickford is a Pirate. Just saying he will look great in Black and Yellow on
a staff of Cole, Taillon, Kingham, Bickford and ??? LHP.
8. Royals - Clint
Frazier, OF Loganville HS GA
Let’s load up the Outfield in Kansas City. Many have said they need pitching and I agree
- just not this year, this draft. Unless
Gray or Appel fall to them, the Royals need to build from within and via the
draft. Frazier fits and Dayton Moore
loves players like Frazier. Just look at
how he has treated Frenchy (Jeff Francoeur).
For me, the only way Frazier is not a Royal is that Meadows is available
because the Indians selected Frazier first.
Either way, Dayton Moore gets a Georgia High School Outfielder.
7. Red Sox – Reese McGuire, C Kentwood HS WA
The Red Sox signed, Swihart, they hoped they were getting an athletic
switch-hitter who could develop the skills to stay behind the plate. Blake is
now in Advance A with Salem and it is time to restock with a prospect and Reese
McGuire to me is a solid, low risk prospect in the mold of Jason Varitek. It is easy for me to see Reese guiding the
Red Sox from behind the dish for years in the future. As for Swihart, first base will work just fine and both can
be together and form the nucleus of the organization.
6. Marlins - Jonathon Gray, RHP, University of Oklahoma
OK
The heavens shine down on VP of Scouting / Scouting Director
Stan Meek as Gray in my draft falls right to his open arms. Gray fits the Marlins system and is the best
organization for him at this time. Meek
and the Marlins love big country bodies and strong arms. Gray to Miami just is a great fit. Gray will no doubt go higher as GM’s are not
the ones reading my stuff so if Gray goes #1 just flip him and Bryant. The players involved are much better off my
way but maybe the Marlins trade Bryant to Houston as they trade Matt Dominguez
to them.
5. Indians - Austin
Meadows, OF Grayson HS GA
Tyler Naquin needs a partner to secure the outfield at the
Jake and the Indians need to trust their guts and draft and sign a special
player. Austin Meadows is a baseball rat
and is a tool shed. The Indians would do
well with making this selection and allowing Meadows to grow in the
system. Never a club to rush prospects,
Meadows will endear himself to the organization and Grady’s ladies can
resurface as Austin’s Admirers.
4. Twins – Marco Gonzales, LHP Gonzaga University WA
It’s time for Deron Johnson to go get the organization a
Left Handed Starting pitcher and the Twins like athletic players. Previous drafts have proven successful when
the Twins use their top picks on athletes.
This is a good pick that saves money as the twins have the 7th
highest amount of recommended money. They will be looking to secure some top
talents which are willing to be over drafted / underpaid and players on Day 2
that don’t want to continue their education and are willing to sign for fair value,
just not over the top money.
3. Rockies - DJ Peterson, 1B, University of New Mexico NM
This just makes sense - a corner infield with some chops. Peterson has jumped through the college hoops
and flat hits the ball along way. The
Rockies need another knight on the board to compliment Arenado and Peterson is
that knight!! Checkmate National League
West.
2. CHICAGO Cubs –
Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford CA
Appel and Boras will be the problem with Theo and his gang
of North Siders. The Windy city and
their loyal fans will embrace Mark for what he is – a hardworking, educated person
with plus make up. Mark should fit into
the Cubs system and living in what is described as a medium to high class area
around Wrigley should help Mark become acclimated quickly into the professional
game. There is little risk in the selection
1. 1.HOUSTON Astros – Kris Bryant, 3B, University of San Diego CA
Working behind the scenes this plays out to the benefit of
both parties involved. Houston cuts a
deal for a mature MLB ready bat? The
stats guys in the front office go fishing ... will they catch a Blue Marlin or a
Tuna? Bryant signs below recommended saving
money and that allows Houston to settle.
Bryant is High Risk, High Reward.
He doesn’t have a position other than the batter’s box. This pick only makes sense since the Astros
have moved to the American League.
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